The "2018-2027 education system scenarios" is the 16th edition of a series that was launched in 2002 with specific forecasts on the future of institutions of higher education. They deal with the number of school students, university students, degrees awarded and teaching staff in the largest segment of the Swiss education system. The results are often provided with a high degree of detail.
This work by the Federal Statistical Office aims to reliably anticipate the main future developments based on a transparent methodology and to thereby provide a solid basis for decision making and planning.
The principal change factors are often demography, trends affecting school and tertiary-level education attendance and transitions between different levels of education, as well as the economic situation. Apart from taking account of the impact of the HarmoS Concordat on the number of pre-school and compulsory school children, no hypothesis is made regarding possible changes in education policy.
The reference scenario is the most plausible, while the other two alternative scenarios high and low are not only in some cases based on different structural hypotheses, but are also constructed to be compatible with the uncertainties identified in the scenarios of previous years. These two scenarios thus provide developments that are plausible by definition.
Lastly, the general hypotheses of the new scenarios are often very similar to those used in the previous scenarios.