2018-2027 scenarios for upper secondary level – Students and qualifications: Main results

Following a slight drop of the number of students until 2019, new growth is expected from 2020 onwards

The FSO's latest education system scenarios confirm that overall number of students at upper secondary level, which have only little changed since 2011, should decline slightly up to 2019 before rising again from 2020 onwards.

According to the reference scenario, the total number of 1st year students, which has somewhat diminished since 2011, is expected to begin a new phase of growth from 2019 or 2020 onwards depending on the considered programme (globally +11% from 2017 to 2027), mainly for demographic reasons. The number of qualifications awarded at the end of vocational education and training (federal VET diplomas and certificates) should first decrease (‑3% from 2017 to 2022) and then rise again (+6% from 2022 to 2027). The number of academic, vocational and specialised maturas should remain at the present level until 2022 and then grow again (+7% from 2022 to 2027).

At cantonal level the future developments could be quite different from this national pattern, mainly due to the specific demographic dynamics expected in each canton. Moreover in initial vocational education, expected trends vary considerably by field of education. According to the reference scenario, the number of federal VET diplomas and certificates should increase by 1000 (+23%) in the “nursing staff” field and by 900 (+25%) in the “welfare” field, whereas a decline of 1100 (-8%) is expected in the “electricity and mechanics” field.

Updated on 10th September 2018

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