Cantonal projections

The scenarios for population development in the cantons are based on the most recent scenarios for Switzerland as a whole. These cantonal scenarios were calculated simultaneously for all cantons and adjusted at each stage of the projection to the scenarios of population development in Switzerland. 

The interest and originality of these scenarios lies in the fact that it is indeed a regionalisation of national scenarios (of their method and assumptions) and not only an aggregation of several cantonal scenarios or a distribution of the national scenarios between the different cantons. This method ensures that, for each year of the projection, the total of the results for the cantons is identical to the scenario results for Switzerland as a whole.

 

2020

2030

2040

2050

Switzerland

8 688.2

9 430.8

10 015.4

10 440.6

Zurich

1 553.6

1 729.1

1 880.5

2 002.8

Bern

1 046.3

1 104.0

1 135.9

1 147.0

Lucerne

416.3

452.0

476.9

490.3

Uri

37.0

39.9

41.1

40.8

Schwyz

162.6

179.7

190.7

196.1

Obwalden

38.4

41.0

42.9

44.0

Nidwalden

43.9

46.9

48.3

48.7

Glarus

40.7

42.6

43.4

42.9

Zug

130.2

146.9

159.8

169.2

Fribourg

325.2

353.6

374.2

389.8

Solothurn

278.3

306.2

325.6

336.6

Basel-Stadt

196.6

207.8

214.4

215.0

Basel-Landsch.

291.3

306.1

314.8

318.2

Schaffhausen

83.6

91.9

99.5

106.4

App. A. Rh.

55.7

58.5

60.9

62.9

App. I. Rh.

16.3

17.4

18.5

19.7

St. Gallen

516.7

562.0

605.2

647.4

Graubünden

198.9

200.5

197.4

190.7

Aargau

695.3

781.6

851.7

905.2

Thurgau

282.9

313.9

336.2

350.5

Ticino

353.3

352.6

346.5

335.2

Vaud

815.6

906.7

989.2

1 057.8

Valais

349.2

373.7

390.2

400.1

Neuchâtel

177.3

180.1

181.7

181.2

Geneva

509.1

559.6

611.9

663.8

Jura

73.8

76.5

78.0

78.1

Source: FSO - SCENARIO

Three scenarios and two variants were calculated. The reference scenario (AR-00-2020) continues the developments observed in recent decades. The high scenario (BR-00-2020) combines a choice of assumptions more favourable to population growth. Finally, the low scenario (CR-00-2020) uses assumptions that are less favourable to growth.  

Contact

Federal Statistical Office Section Demography and Migration
Espace de l'Europe 10
CH-2010 Neuch√Ętel
Switzerland

Contact

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