National projections

The Federal Statistical Office has been commissioned by the Federal Council since 1984 to produce - together with other Federal Offices - population scenarios for Switzerland. Forecasts of demographic growth focus on hypotheses about population growth in Switzerland, about employment and the level of education. The 2020-2050 scenarios were published in May 2020.

Three new basic scenarios were calculated. The reference scenario (A-00-2020) describes the growth that seems most plausible in the coming decade. The “high”scenario (B-00-2020) is based on a combination of hypotheses that promotes future population growth, whereas the “low” scenario (C-00-2020) combines hypotheses, favoring a slower population growth.

The hypotheses behind the 2020-2050 scenarios for Switzerland

Known as the component method (population projection), this technique is used to calculate population scenarios based on the selection of certain hypotheses on future demographic change with regard to fertility, mortality, immigration and emigration as well as naturalisations.

The reference scenario is calculated using the reference assumptions for both fertility and mortality or migration. The high scenario is a combination of high assumptions for all three components of population change and the low scenario is a combination of low assumptions. These three scenarios are the baseline scenarios for this series of projections. They define an area that currently appears to be the most plausible for the development of Switzerland's permanent resident population over the next few decades.

Permanent resident population according to the three basic scenarios

The reference scenario is expecting a further increase in the permanent resident population up until 2050 to approximately 10.4 million people. The “high” scenario assumes that the population will grow rapidly and that at the end of 2050 the number of inhabitants will have risen to 11.4 million. The “low” scenario predicts slower population growth and 9.5 million inhabitants at the end of 2050.

Permanent resident population according to three basic scenarios, in thousand

	Reference Scenario	High Scenario	Low Scenario
2020	8 688.2	8 717.5	8 658.7
2025	9 058.3	9 178.3	8 937.9
2030	9 430.8	9 672.2	9 189.4
2035	9 758.5	10 146.9	9 371.7
2040	10 015.4	10 572.6	9 463.5
2045	10 235.3	10 979.7	9 502.5
2050	10 440.6	11 385.7	9 516.9

Source: FSO, SCENARIO

Growth of the permanent resident population in Switzerland

Since 1990, Switzerland’s population of around 6.8 million has grown considerably and in 2018 totalled 8.5 million inhabitants. The scenarios show that this trend is intensifying. According to the reference scenario, Switzerland’s population will be 10.4 million in 2050.

Sex and age structure

The age structure of the population in Switzerland will undergo considerable change in the coming decades. Population ageing, which will take place over the next 30 years, is due partly to a decline in the number of births in the preceding decades and partly to the baby boom cohorts, who were born in Switzerland between 1950 and 1970 or who immigrated to Switzerland in this period and up to the present day gradually reaching retirement age. As life expectancy continues to rise, a greater proportion of people are reaching very old age and population ageing is intensified. Due to a stagnating, low-level birth rate and constantly falling mortality rates, after 2050 the proportion of old people will remain high despite the fact that the baby boom generation will no longer be alive in 50 years’ time.

The reference scenario assumes that the number of persons aged 20 to 64 will increase slightly in the next 30 years. It rises from 5.3 million in 2018 to 5.5 million in 2030, 5.6 million in 2040 and 5.8 million in 2050. However, their number increases at a slower rate than that of persons aged 65 and over and their proportion in the total population falls from 61.5% in 2018 to 57.8% in 2030, 56.0% in 2040 and 55.1% in 2050.

Age pyramid

The age pyramid will change in the next thirty years and the fir tree shape will look more like an urn. According to all scenarios the top of the age pyramid will become wider and wider as the baby boom generations enter the older age groups. The base of the age pyramid, however, may either get wider or narrower - if there are more or fewer births - according to the fertility hypothesis of the scenarios.

Swiss scenarios and alternatives

Combining the reference hypotheses gives the reference scenario A-00-2020, combining the high hypotheses gives the “high” scenario B-00 2020 and combining the low hypotheses gives the “low” scenario C-00-2020.

The reference scenario describes the trend considered, at the time of calculation, to be most plausible for the coming decade. The “high” and “low” scenarios indicate the plausible range of future growth in the resident population and the economically active population.

In addition to these three basic scenarios,  two alternative scenarios and seven variant projections were calculated with regard to population change and seven variant projections with regard to the economically active population.

The variants of the reference scenario were established by changing the assumptions for only one component of population change in each case: fertility, mortality and migration. These variants are calculated in order to study the influence of each demographic component on the evolution of the population and on the evolution of the various indicators describing its structure.

The alternative scenarios D-00-2020 "accelerated ageing" and E-00-2020 "attenuated ageing" give a plausible range for the evolution of old-age dependency ratios. The first has the same assumptions as the "low" scenario except for the mortality that corresponds to that of the "high" scenario and the second has the same assumptions as the "high" scenario except for the mortality that corresponds to that of the "low" scenario.

Overview about the demographic alternatives

Variant projections	Modified Assumptions
A-01-2020 High fertility	fertility high hypothesis
A-02-2020 Low fertility	fertility low hypothesis
A-03-2020 High life expectancy at birth	mortality high hypothesis
A-04-2020 Low life expectancy at birth	mortality low hypothesis
A-05-2020 High net migration	migration high hypothesis
A-06-2020 Low net migration	migration low hypothesis
A-07-2020 Stable emigration rates	emigration rates at each age equal to their average for 2013-2017 (Rates of acquisition of nationality also fixed)

Dependency ratio

Demographic indicators such as youth (or old-age dependency ratios) make it possible to directly compare the size of the population of children and adolescents (or the size of the population of retirement age) with that of the population of working age.

The old-age dependency ratio, i.e. the number of people aged 65 or over per 100 people aged 20-64, will rise sharply in the coming decades, especially between 2020 and 2030, while the youth dependency ratio, i.e. the number of people under 20 per 100 people aged 20-64, will increase only slightly.

Youth, old-age and total dependency ratio according to the reference scenario A-00-2020

	2020	2025	2030	2035	2040	2045	2050
Youth dependency ratio	32.6	33.7	34.6	35.1	35.1	35.0	35.0
Old-age dependency ratio	30.9	34	38.3	41.8	43.6	44.9	46.5
Total dependency ratio	63.5	67.7	72.9	76.9	78.7	79.9	81.5

Source: FSO - SCENARIO

The total dependency ratio, i.e. the sum total of the youth and the old-age dependency ratios, rises from 62.5 persons aged under 20 or 65 and over per 100 persons aged 20 to 64 in 2018 to 72.9 in 2030 and 81.5 in 2050. In 2010, at 60.7, this ratio fell to an all-time low for the second time since 1991. It will not be this low again in the decades to come.

Evolution of the old-age dependency ratio

The old-age dependency ratio clearly shows that Switzerland's total population is ageing rapidly. It will rise sharply over the next few decades. At the end of 2018, there were 30.0 persons of retirement age per 100 persons of working age. In the reference scenario, this ratio increases to 46.5 by the end of 2050. This means that there will be about two people of working age for every person of retirement age. The old-age dependency ratio will be 42.0 and 51.7 respectively in 2050 according to the alternative scenarios "attenuated ageing" and "accentuated ageing".

Economically active population

By clicking on the following link you can consult the results of the Scenarios on the economically active population