Cantonal projections

The scenarios for population development in the cantons are based on the most recent scenarios for Switzerland as a whole. These cantonal scenarios were calculated simultaneously for all cantons and adjusted at each stage of the projection to the scenarios of population development in Switzerland. 

The interest and originality of these scenarios lies in the fact that it is indeed a regionalisation of national scenarios (of their method and assumptions) and not only an aggregation of several cantonal scenarios or a distribution of the national scenarios between the different cantons. This method ensures that, for each year of the projection, the total of the results for the cantons is identical to the scenario results for Switzerland as a whole.

	2020	2030	2040	2050
Switzerland	8 688.2	9 430.8	10 015.4	10 440.6
Zurich	1 553.6	1 729.1	1 880.5	2 002.8
Bern	1 046.3	1 104.0	1 135.9	1 147.0
Lucerne	416.3	452.0	476.9	490.3
Uri	37.0	39.9	41.1	40.8
Schwyz	162.6	179.7	190.7	196.1
Obwalden	38.4	41.0	42.9	44.0
Nidwalden	43.9	46.9	48.3	48.7
Glarus	40.7	42.6	43.4	42.9
Zug	130.2	146.9	159.8	169.2
Fribourg	325.2	353.6	374.2	389.8
Solothurn	278.3	306.2	325.6	336.6
Basel-Stadt	196.6	207.8	214.4	215.0
Basel-Landsch.	291.3	306.1	314.8	318.2
Schaffhausen	83.6	91.9	99.5	106.4
App. A. Rh.	55.7	58.5	60.9	62.9
App. I. Rh.	16.3	17.4	18.5	19.7
St. Gallen	516.7	562.0	605.2	647.4
Graubünden	198.9	200.5	197.4	190.7
Aargau	695.3	781.6	851.7	905.2
Thurgau	282.9	313.9	336.2	350.5
Ticino	353.3	352.6	346.5	335.2
Vaud	815.6	906.7	989.2	1 057.8
Valais	349.2	373.7	390.2	400.1
Neuchâtel	177.3	180.1	181.7	181.2
Geneva	509.1	559.6	611.9	663.8
Jura	73.8	76.5	78.0	78.1

Source: FSO - SCENARIO

Three scenarios and two variants were calculated. The reference scenario (AR-00-2020) continues the developments observed in recent decades. The high scenario (BR-00-2020) combines a choice of assumptions more favourable to population growth. Finally, the low scenario (CR-00-2020) uses assumptions that are less favourable to growth.