Education system scenarios – Analysis2011-2020 scenarios for higher secondary level – Students and qualifications: Main results
Higher secondary level: after a decade of decline, numbers to stabilise towards 2020
The FSO's latest education system scenarios confirm that a decline of 5% to 6% is expected in the total number of students in the higher secondary level for the current decade, mainly for demographic reasons. This decline should slow down towards 2020, heralding a phase of stabilisation followed by an increase in numbers. Depending on the course type, the number of new students should recover from 2019 or 2020.
In 2011 the number of students in the 1st year of the higher secondary level should be similar to those for 2010 in all course types: initial vocational training (-0.7% to + 0.1%), matura schools (-0.4% to +0.3%), general education schools (-0.6% to -1.9%) and bridge-year courses (-0.5% to -0.6%).
Between 2010 and 2020 a fall in numbers of new students is expected of about 6% for initial vocational training, of 0% to 3% for general education and of 2% to 4% for bridge-year courses.
The number of vocational maturas may continue to increase until 2014 (+7% to +16% compared with 2010), then fall by 4% from then until 2020. The number of academic maturas could fall by 3% to 7% between 2010 and 2020 but the decline may only take place after several years of stability.
Update: 15.06.2011
Further information
Main results, fullt text (german)
Main results, fullt text (french)
Information
Laurent Gaillard, FSO, Education System Section, tel. +41 32 71 36635