Education system scenarios – Analysis2010-2060 scenarios concerning the population's educational level: hypotheses and uncertainties

We use the same modelling as for the 2009-2018 scenarios (german, french), i.e.:

• "multi-state" modelling including probabilities of transition between educational levels for each age, gender and nationality. This modelling is closely coupled with demographic scenarios and takes total consideration of immigration, emigration and naturalisations.
• Transition rates based directly on the Swiss Labour Force Survey (SLFS), in order to avoid problematic inter-source correlations between the number of new graduates ("flow") and the educational level ("stock").
  

In order to provide a plausible range for the future development of the level of education, we are using three very different scenarios. It will be noted below that although certain trends depend absolutely on the hypotheses used, other trends are very solid because they are linked for the main part to the gradual replacement of generally poorly educated generations by generations who often pursue tertiary education.

The "high" scenario

The "high" scenario assumes:

• An ever-increasing transition to tertiary level (higher education institutions or higher vocational training), this increase may be caused by a continuation of the "upgrading" of training and education courses which move from upper secondary to tertiary level or by a growing tendency to pursue studies in higher education institutions or in higher vocational training.
• A continuation in the increase in the educational level of the immigrant population, with a proportion of persons at tertiary level increasing from the current level of 60% to slightly more than 70% in the long term.
  
• A high hypothesis on the current rates of transition to tertiary level for foreigners with a gradual reduction in the gap between Swiss nationals and foreigners with respect to the probability of obtaining a diploma at upper secondary or tertiary level.

This scenario is coupled with the "high" demographic scenario B-00-2010 as basic scenario.

The "medium" scenario

The medium scenario is based on much more modest hypotheses that are relatively close to a status quo in terms of education. It relies chiefly on the assumption that the upgrading process from upper secondary to tertiary level, which a number of training and education programmes in teaching, health, social work and the arts have undergone, is coming to an end in Switzerland. It hypothesises that the tendency to participate in further education will increase only moderately over the next 10 years and then level out. If we compare this scenario with the 10 year scenarios for the education and training system, this scenario is very close to the "neutral" scenario for 2010-2019.

This scenario is coupled with the "medium" demographic scenario A-00-2010 as basic scenario.

The "low" scenario

To set the baseline rates of transition to tertiary level, the "low" scenario" takes account first of all of the uncertainty about the actual relevance of the number of new graduates measured in the SLFS.

The hypotheses are as follows:

• The probability of entering the tertiary level at any age decreases by 25% (see the 2009-2018 scenarios (german, french)) compared with the baseline levels adopted in the other scenarios.
• Very slight decrease in the probability of obtaining an upper secondary diploma and a gradual decline over time of the probability of obtaining a tertiary level diploma.
• "Low" hypothesis on the probability for the foreign resident population to obtain a tertiary level degree.
  Decline in the educational level of the immigrant population (for the tertiary level: from 60% to just under 45% over time, i.e. a return to the values observed in the late 1990s).

This scenario is coupled with the "low" demographic scenario C-00-2010 as basic scenario.

Hypotheses are also elaborated concerning persons in education and training.

More detailed information on the hypotheses is avaible in the following documents.

• Principal results
• Detailed results
• Publication: Scénarios 2010-2060 pour l'évolution de la population de la Suisse (french)
• Publication: Szenarien zur Bevölkerungsentwicklung der Schweiz 2010-2060 (german)
• Publication: Evolution future du niveau de formation de la population de la Suisse (french, scenarios 2009-2018)
• Publication: Künftige Entwicklung des Bildungsniveaus der Bevölkerung in der Schweiz (german, scenarios 2009-2018)
• Publication: Scénarios 2011-2020 pour les hautes écoles et les diplômés dans la population (french)
• Publication: Szenarien 2011-2020 für die Hochschulen und die Personen mit Hochschulabschluss in der Bevölkerung (german)
  
  

Information

 Jacques Babel, FSO, Education System Section, tel. +41 32 71 36381