Education system scenarios – Analysis2011-2020 scenarios for the education system
Foreword
The "2011-2020 Education System Scenarios" is the 10th edition of a series that was launched in 2002 with specific forecasts on the future of all institutions of higher education. These papers provide forecasts up to 2020 covering school students, university students, degrees awarded and teaching staff in the largest segment of the Swiss education system. The results are often provided with a high degree of detail.
This year for the first time, indicators at cantonal level present teacher retirements or the age structure of teachers at compulsory school level. Some improvements to the forecasting model have also been made.
This work by the Federal Statistical Office aims to reliably anticipate the main future developments based on a transparent methodology and to thereby provide a solid basis for decision making and planning.
The principal change factors are often demography, trends affecting school and tertiary-level education attendance and transitions between different levels of education, as well as the economic situation. Apart from taking account of the impact of the HarmoS Concordat on the number of pre-school and compulsory school children, no hypothesis is made regarding possible changes in education policy.
In most of the forecast papers, two scenarios are selected. The first scenario is of the "status quo" type. It usually assumes a lack of change or minimal changes in the principal factors. The second is a "trend" type scenario which mainly extends observed trends for the principal factors.
Lastly, the general hypotheses of the 2011-2020 scenarios are often very similar to those used in the 2010-2019 scenarios.
Principal results
The principal results of the 2011-2020 scenarios are the following:
Compulsory education
Higher secondary level
Higher education institutions
Educational level of the population of Switzerland
In every instance, marked regional or cantonal differences are observable in the trends. Detailed results are made available.
Revisions
The main revisions with respect to the 2010-2019 scenarios are the following:
Pre-school and compulsory school students
Incremental changes in the scope of scenarios for compulsory schooling result again in a very slight upward revision. Another change is related to the fact that the scenarios for 2011-2020 are based on new "scenarios on the demographic evolution of the cantons from 2010 to 2035".
At the national level, the short-term revisions are minor and do not exceed 0.7% by 2015 for the primary school level and the lower secondary level. With regard to the pre-school level, the revision is also less than 1% for the "convergence" scenario, but logically higher (+1.8% in 2015) for the "neutral scenario", which does not take account of current pre-school developments.
Compulsory school teachers
The results for the evolution of the number of retirements and for the evolution of the need for new teachers differ only slightly from those obtained in the 2010-2019 scenarios. However, the absolute figures differ more significantly from the figures published last year for the following reasons: a different treatment in the model of teachers whose main activity is in non-attributable educational levels and a lower estimate of the average volume of activity of teachers at the beginning of their teaching career. These two revisions change the baselines, but have almost no impact on the trends presented.
Higher secondary level students and qualifications
The results of the 2010-2019 scenarios have been largely confirmed. By extending the forecast period to 2020, the end of a decade of decline in student numbers can be seen. Overall, forecasts have been revised upwards by a bit more than 1% for the students and 3% for the qualifications.
Higher education institutions: students and graduates
The results of the 2010-2019 scenarios are very much confirmed and the results of the new scenarios differ only slightly from the previous ones. For universities of applied sciences (UAS), the best available information on the progress of studies in the Bologna system as well as the upwards revision in the number of vocational matura and the continued increase in the transition to UAS results in a revision of long-term forecasts for the Bachelor's and Master's of +2000 students for the "trend" scenario (+3%) and +4000 students for the "neutral" scenario (i.e. +7%).
As regards universities and institutes of technology (UIT), the increase in the number of academic matura as well as in the number of foreign students beginning Bachelor's degrees also results in an upwards revision of long-term forecasts for the Bachelor's and Master's degrees of +760 students for the "trend" scenario (+0,6%) and +2400 students for the "neutral" scenario (+2%).
Higher education institutions: teaching staff
For the universities and institutes of technology (UIT), the findings on the proportion of women or foreigners differ only slightly from the 2010-2019 scenarios. From now until 2019, the proportion of women has been decreased by one percentage point ("neutral" scenario), due to the slight downward reassessment of the hypothesis on the proportion of women among new teachers. For the number of foreign teaching staff, the revised figure is greater, - 2.5 percentage points in 2019, due in particular to the fact that as of this year Swiss naturalisations are now taken into account.
The findings from the scenarios for both universities of applied sciences (UAS) and universities of teacher education (UTE) differ only slightly from the 2010-2019 scenarios. For 2019, for the universities of applied sciences, the revised figure is between -0.7 and -0.6 percentage points for the proportion of women and between -0.3 and -1.4 percentage points for the proportion of foreign teaching staff.
Educational level of the population of Switzerland (2010-2060 scenarios)
If the new scenarios (2010-2060) are compared with those of 2009-2018, the results of the "medium" scenario are only marginally different (deviation of less than 0.7% until 2018 of the proportion of tertiary education graduates in the total population aged 25 to 64). For the population of foreign nationality, the deviation is slightly greater due to the fact that we lowered the transition rate to tertiary education (proportion of tertiary education graduates reduced by 2% by the year 2018).
Changes in method or level of detail of calculations
Compulsory school students
No change
Compulsory school teachers
Several improvements have been made this year:
- All calculations are now performed at the cantonal level. Cantonal-level retirement and age structure results are also disseminated (recruitment results, however, are disseminated at the regional level because of uncertainties relating to reforms and teacher-pupil ratios);
- A better consideration of teachers whose main occupational activity is of non-attributable type.
- A better determination of volumes of activity.
Higher secondary level students and qualifications
No change
Higher education institutions: students and graduates
This year, the following improvements have been made to the forecasts model:
- Treatment of data on students training to be teachers (for the preschool and primary school level as well as the lower secondary level) at the universities of Geneva and Fribourg together with the universities of teacher education in order to obtain a more comprehensive view of teacher training (however, these students are not subtracted from their respective UIT).
- Separation in the model of students according to their university entrance qualification when they first registered at a university in Switzerland (Swiss or foreign qualification). This differentiation was introduced this year for all levels of education and all types of university (UIT, UAS and UTE).
- Better account is now taken of trends at the doctoral level with respect to the proportion of students coming from abroad and women beginning doctoral studies.
Higher education institutions: teaching staff
No change
Table of contents of the 2011-2020 education system scenarios
I. Pre-school and compulsory school
I.1 Students
I.2 Teachers
II. Higher secondary level
II.1 Students and qualifications
III. Higher education institutions
III.1 Students and graduates
III.2 Teaching staff
IV. Educational level of the population of Switzerland (2010-2060 scenarios)
V. Scenarios and indicator systems (german, french)
Other information available
Further information
Jacques Babel, FSO, Education System Section, tel. +41 32 71 36381
Last updated: 09.11.2011
